My friend Eric recently said this to me in an e-mail:
Sometimes I wonder if maybe this whole Iraq mess was because, when looking at a map in preparation to attack Iran, some dude said "Geeze that's mountainous. And unlike Afghanistan, Iran is organized enough to take full advantage of that. Oof...that's gonna be nasty. Hey, look! Iraq's flat. Nice and flat. We could take that in a matter of days. And everbody already hates Saddam... it'd be easy to sell this war to the American people. Hey! Here's what let's do, let's publicly make all the arguments that apply to Iran to send a message to them, but instead attack the easier target...we'll scare Iran straight and all we'll have to do is deal with the mess left from being welcomed in Iraq as liberators. It can't fail!"
But then I think...nah...that would be arrogant and stupid.
What this does (besides scare the hell out of me) is possibly explain why Iran has felt able to be so free with their "let's-wipe-Israel-off-the-map" speeches lately: they can see that we weren't even able to handle Iraq. What are we gonna do, entertain them to death? I'd like to see us try!
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